主讲人： Henk van Zuylen 教授

题目：HOW TO ESTIMATE AN ORIGIN DESTINATION MATRIX FOR URBAN TRAFFIC

时间：2017年4月12日 15：00

地点：九里校区4404B

主讲人简介：

        Henk van zuylen教授是荷兰代尔夫特理工大学交通运输及规划系教授，东南大学、同济大学、湖南大学客座教授，曾担任中荷智能交通培训中心主任（北京）和荷兰TRAIL研究院院长。

        Henk van Zuylen教授致力于交通运输及相关领域的研究30余载，并具有理论物理学、计算机科学和心理学的学术背景。承担了国际和荷兰国内三十余项重大课题，公开发表300多篇文章（含会议论文），其中SCI论文80余篇。研究领域主要集中在ITS和动态交通控制领域，其科研团队正在做行程时间预测和可靠度分析、先进的驾驶员辅助系统研究、不可靠交通网络（异常交通条件）下驾驶行为的研究、交通网络鲁棒性（稳健性）分析、突发事件交通应对管理研究，交通概率分布模型研究和中西方驾驶行为对比研究等。

讲座简介：

       The Origin Destination matrix (OD) is a concept that is needed for planning, monitoring and management of traffic. It contains the number of trips made during a certain time period between origin zones and destination zones.

       An Origin Destination matrix for urban trips is more difficult to develop than for interurban long and medium distance trips. The socio-economic characteristics are valuable parameters to estimate trip attractions and destinations, but often the distance does not have a significant effect on the distribution of urban trips. Since the 1980s methods are developed to estimate the trip matrix from traffic volumes. The problem is underdetermined: the information in the OD matrix is more than the information contained in the traffic volumes. Nowadays there are more information sources like probe vehicles, Automated Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras, mobile phone data etc.

       Different data sources have to be fused in order to get valid input for the estimation of an OD matrix. Incomplete data (failing detectors, limited availability of ANPR cameras), traffic data with different meaning (semantics), different time scales and different possibilities to use them to get certain results (i.e. different semiotics) makes it necessary to screen, select and fuse the available observation data.

       The next step, from traffic data to an estimated Origin Destination Matrix is basically an underspecified problem: the number of data items (traffic counts and OD movements between cameras) is less than the number of matrix elements to be estimated. That means that there are infinite numbers OD matrices that match with the observed traffic data. Several tricks have been developed by researchers to find a unique OD matrix out of the set of feasible solutions, such as for instance the minimization of the information contained in the OD matrix.